INDIANA, USA — Is there any chance for a white Christmas, or even at least some snow showers around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day? There is but it is fairly low right now with an early look 9-10 days out. Please stay tuned for updates.
We looked through all the possible data on snow potential for Indiana around December 24th and 25th.
Tap HERE for the most current look at our local forecast with rain and snow chances.
(DISCLAIMER: Normally this is way too early for a look at snow chances. We don't usually like doing this. Sometimes we don't have a good idea for snow just 24 hours in advance! However, because Christmas the biggest, most talked about snow forecast of the year, we wanted to give you a couple early thoughts to chew on before we have more exact forecasts.)
You may have seen a lot of social media posts with the snowiest model run out of 50+ members for several inches across Indiana. Those are meant for clicks and become very misleading.
But many of us still like to think about white Christmas chances, so let's have a little early weather discussion.
Will we have a white Christmas for 2024? We don't know.
Is there a chance? Yes, but it looks very low for now. (scroll down for a map of current chances across Indiana)
Possible weather setup around Christmas Eve
Right now there looks to be a likely dip in the jet stream around the Great Lakes and Northeast. In order to have a snow chance you have to be cold. Or if there is any leftover snow, it has to be cold enough for it to last.
However the latest data suggests the dip in the upper-level pattern is looking a bit less intense, or in meteorological terms more zonal. There means the chance for a major winter storm is low, but there could be lake-effect snow showers.
Closer to Indiana, you can see some colder air leading in toward Christmas Day. Maybe a mix of upper 20s to low 40s. The coldest air should stay well to the north.
In a pattern like this, there may be some scattered, weaker lake-effect snow showers, but that would most likely keep snow chances or white Christmas chances in place for far northern Indiana, not so much central Indiana.
However, something to watch in pattern like this would be the chance for a clipper system to come down the jet stream with some light snow chances. We have had a few of those already this year.
What are the current chances for snow showers around Christmas? (Not necessarily much accumulation)
All major global models have 5-30% chances of snow showers across Indiana. Let's take a look at the EURO more specifically. This is as of the weekend of Dec. 14-15.
Chances for snow showers (not necessarily accumulation) from highest to lowest across Indiana:
- South Bend: 36% chance
- Fort Wayne: 24% chance
- Lafayette: 20% chance
- Richmond: 16% chance
- Indianapolis: 15% chance
- Bloomington: 10% chance
- New Albany: 8% chance
- Evansville: 6% chance
We gathered these chances from analyzing all 50 members of the EURO run available at 12Z.
What is our first, early guess for a white Christmas?
Right now the vast majority of Indiana is in an either very low or low chance for snow. The data is just too messy and weak to pinpoint any exact snow chances. However we could come up with a couple scenarios that could bring some snow chances around Indiana for Christmas.
There is a greater chance for some snow in far northern Indiana, especially around the snow belts of Michiana. But once again it is too early to call.
The best chance for snow may be some a couple days before Christmas that tries to not melt before the big holiday.
Historical chances of a white Christmas
Right now our chances for snow look somewhat close to the historical averages (at least 1" of snow on the ground) for a white Christmas. Old snow that lingers can count too, or fresh snow!
- Northern Indiana: 35-50% chance
- Central Indiana: 20-35% chance
- Southern Indiana: 5-20% chance
We'll have to wait and see. We should have a decent idea of some snow chances about 5-6 days before Christmas. For a more exact forecast, we will have to wait until Dec. 23 or 24.
— 13News Meteorologist Matt Standridge