INDIANA, USA — The last time we had more than 1" of snow on Thanksgiving Day in central Indiana was 1975, but that may change this year with the chance for a mix of rain and snow coming to Indiana on turkey day.
Tap HERE for the latest snow forecast for central Indiana.
DISCLAIMER: This is a very early look for snow chances across Indiana. As of the weekend, there is at least a 60% chance for snow accumulation across parts of Indiana, especially north of I-70. That is pretty high for being a few days out, but things can change.
We are going to chat about the various tracks this storm could take, and how those differences will impact our Thanksgiving Day weather.
Active final week of November ahead
Regardless of snow, it will be an active week across Indiana with cold air dumping into the Midwest.
A front on Monday will bring light rain showers to most Hoosiers (up to 0.25"). The rain isn't the big story, but rather the 20-degree temperature drop that comes afterwards. We will likely have a mix of 30s and 40s for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, so when our next storm system comes later this week, the cold air will be in place.
The question is exactly how cold it will be and who will get the rain and who will get the snow.
Possible tracks
The position of the low pressure will help determine how far south the coldest air can go. However if it goes too far south, there may not be enough moisture to do anything.
Track #1 (northerly journey)
A northern track would bring the low pressure right over central Indiana, the heart of the storm and the heart of the state. Usually this time of year it is just barely too warm for snow right around the low pressure. This scenario would keep central and southern Indiana wet, while northern Indiana could get some snow.
Track #2 (along the Ohio River)
A track along the Ohio River would set up central Indiana for some heavy snowfall, especially near and north of I-70. A few inches could fall starting late Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. If you want snow, this is the track you need.
Track #3 (southerly journey)
A track to the south, more toward Tennessee would help the cold air come to all of Indiana, but there may not be enough moisture in the air to do much. It would make for a cold and cloudy Thanksgiving with a few possible flurries, but nothing impactful. You need to be close enough to the low pressure center to have moisture, but just far enough to the north to be cold enough.
It is a big balance of cold and moisture for snowfall forecast.
As of the weekend, track #2 seems to be the most possible, but definitely not guaranteed.
This track would lead to multiple inches of snow, especially just north of Indianapolis. It would create a mess for the 2024 Drumstick Dash, and travel may be difficult at times.
There doesn't look to be a lot of ice, but rather snow versus rain.
After the storm
Once we get the low pressure out of the way, it look very highly likely that north winds will blow over Lake Michigan and lead to lots of clouds and some lake-effect snow showers across much of the state for Black Friday.
Even if we get lots of rain on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday is looking cloudy with possible flurries. Bundle up before heading out to shop!
Changes ahead
This weather discussion is not meant to hype a snow system, but rather to give you an informed, early look at snow chances coming Thanksgiving week. The 13News weather team will have several updates before the storm arrives.
— 13News Meteorologist Matt Standridge
