INDIANA, USA — The National Hurricane Center has given a 50% chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean and western Gulf for the first week of October. Water temperatures are warm and existing showers and storms over Central America may leave land and move over the ocean, giving the thunderstorms the chance to develop and strengthen into a tropical storm or even a hurricane.
Tap HERE to track developing clouds with our interactive satellite.
Zone of potential tropical activity
The highlighted orange zone shows where tropical activity may form in the first week of October (more specifically watching the 2nd through the 7th). It's not a guarantee, but this is an area meteorologists will closely watch to see if storms will organize.
High pressure over the Bahamas should keep the western Atlantic fairly quiet from development.
(Note: There are other storm developments possible farther out into the Atlantic.)
This higher pressure would help steer any system that tries to form, pushing it north and west. As of now, we are not sure what would happen next. Does it stay close to Mexico and central America? Does it get into the Gulf and make any threats toward the United States? Not sure.
However any development this time of year typically has a good chance of surviving.
Peak hurricane season
We have just passed the absolute typical peak of hurricane season, but we are still in prime tropical season. The red color below shows the count of hurricanes and tropical storms. The yellow color below shows the count for hurricanes.
There is plenty of hurricane season left.
Stay tuned for tropical updates.
— 13News Meteorologist Matt Standridge