INDIANAPOLIS — You don't need us to tell you that it's been a rather balmy November...and balmy for autumn (since Oct. 1) for that matter. To date, it's the third warmest November on record in Indianapolis, with the average monthly temperature nearly 8° above normal.
Balmy November and autumn continue...for now
It's been 225 days and counting since the last day with a temperature below freezing. That's the ninth longest streak to date and nearly a month behind schedule for the first sub-32° low temperature.
This is now the sixth latest date for the first below-freezing temperature, and depending on cloud cover later this week, temperatures may not drop below freezing despite the coldest air of the season AND some snow ahead.
There have been two record warm minimum temperatures set this month on the 4th and 5th. Temperatures tonight will remain mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with most of Indiana being the warm sector of the latest storm system.
Mild tonight with line of rain and rumbles
While much of the evening will be balmy and dry, we want you to be aware of an expected quick-moving line of gusty rain and thunder moving across the state between midnight and 6 a.m. Tuesday.
We don't expect any severe weather, but we know the thunder will wake some people up and don't want them to be startled by this. If you don't mind letting your friends and family know that the potential of overnight storms are in our forecast, we would greatly appreciate that.
After early morning rain, temperatures remain well above average on Tuesday and flirt with 70° due to a gusty southwest wind and possibly some sunshine, too.
Windy Wednesday
The first of two late-week cold fronts arrives Wednesday morning with another line of quick-moving rain. Plan for windy conditions developing Wednesday and gusts could exceed 35 mph, causing sporadic power outages. There's noticeably colder air behind that front Wednesday with highs near 50°.
Snowy, windy, cold Thursday
A much strong push of chillier air emerges Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon as low pressure intensifies to our north-northeast of lower Michigan. This causes a strong west-northwest to northerly wind to deliver our coldest air of the season as the low drops southward through the Indiana-Ohio state line, delivering a period of rain/snow that may become predominantly snow at times.
Depending on how cold the air is and how hard snow rates become, it's possible some areas could get a coating of snow by sunset Thursday. This will be especially downwind of Lake Michigan, where lake-enhanced snow bursts may be prevalent in a zone from the shores to near/east of the Indy metro area.
With or without actual snow accumulation, we're definitely getting the first snowflakes of the season and the coldest air since early April. The fact that autumn has been so warm, the cold is going to feel even colder and take some adjustments both psychologically and physically.
We'll continue to update on what areas have the best chance of snow accumulation and how much that might be.
