INDIANAPOLIS — Temperatures are about to trend back upward. Long-term forecasts also hint at above average temperatures continuing into the fall season.
Still feeling like fall in Indiana today and tomorrow
A cool, Canadian air mass will continue to influence our weather for the next few days keeping skies clear and temperatures below average.
- Today's high in the mid 70s: 10 degrees below normal
- The forecast low tomorrow morning of 52 degrees is the average low for Sept. 30
Tomorrow will be slightly warmer as winds shift from the northeast to the southeast with highs recovering into the upper 70s.
Bringing the heat by the weekend
A dominant surface high over the New England area that has kept our cooler temperatures around will shift off to the east allowing a developing heat dome to our west to take over.
- Temps jump from near-average Friday to unseasonably warm this weekend and into early next week.
- A few 90-degree or more days are possible in the extended forecast.
- Little to no rain chances through the weekend. Stray storms possible by Monday.
Are there hints at what our temperatures will do this fall?
The Climate Prediction Center recently released their thoughts on the overall pattern for this fall season (Sep., Oct., Nov.). They're forecasts are influenced by the trends of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). We're currently sitting in a neutral situation with near-average sea surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
ENSO models are trending toward a more La Nina threshold over the next few months. This will have a little influence on the location of the jet stream. Overall, warmer-than-average temperatures set-up across the southern U.S. and cooler air to the north and northwest.
The fall temperature outlook for central Indiana puts the area under a 40-50% chance of above average temperatures and around average rainfall (for Indy during Sept. - Nov. would be around 9.81 inches).
