INDIANAPOLIS — The "windy and warm" forecast for today is certainly verified with gusts over 40 mph at times and highs near 80° again.
Thus far, and as expected for most, the radar has been quiet locally. The focal point over northwestern Indiana within a narrow axis of severe storm potential remains on radar before 7 p.m.
This axis will gradually shift east-southeast this evening and eventually bring an increase of downpours and thunderstorms.
As of now, we're expecting the greatest storm coverage around Indianapolis to be between 11 p.m. to 2 a.m. However, prior to that, there could be some passing showers and/or thunderstorms.
Localized severe wind gusts and/or rotation within some of these storms remain possible, but the more probable impact to a much larger area will be a period of heavy rainfall between now and 4 a.m.
That rainfall will produce 1" locally, 2" over the western half of the viewing area and a quarter to half-inch in the southeastern portion of the state.
The threat for any severe weather ends by 3 a.m. Monday and there will be much cooler air around the rest of the day.
At a minimum, Monday begins rainy but there's at least some hope for optimism to salvage outdoor plans for the afternoon.
Some high resolution modeling is more bullish on a quicker passage of a cold front and brightening sky Monday afternoon. But a potential fly in the ointment would happen if a wave of low pressure developed along the boundary — slowing it down — and causing the rain to linger longer. The jury is still out right now.
The forecast confidence is higher on clearing Monday night to set the stage for three nights in the 30s with the potential of frost. But Tuesday into Thursday looks relatively quiet.