INDIANA, USA — Winter has officially ended. Even though it is the coldest season, it has been a very active start for tornadoes — but only for some regions. We have a tally of National Weather Service-confirmed tornadoes from Jan. 1 through March 20. Plus, the data is the same starting Dec. 21, 2023, which means these are the total number of tornadoes for this past winter.
Tap HERE for a recap on the EF3 tornado that went through Selma and Winchester.
What is normal for late winter?
Tornadoes are possible but still rare in January, February and March for Indiana and much of the Great Lakes. You usually have a lot of spin with an active jet stream, but you do not have enough heat, generally.
This year, we've had some big warm spells for Indiana. When a cold front comes in, it helps spark rotating thunderstorms. The warmer it gets in the late winter, the more you have to watch.
What is typical? This map below shows the average number of confirmed tornadoes for just March (January and February are fairly similar with just lower counts across the map). On average, Indiana gets one tornado in March and one tornado in February.
Typically, the warm Deep South and Texas have higher tornado activity. Cold fronts from the north move in and help stir up thunderstorms closer to the Gulf of Mexico. Over time, you see tornado tracks shift north toward the Ozarks and central Plains later in the spring, and then, an even farther shift north toward the Ohio River Valley and northern Plains by the end of spring.
How many tornadoes have hit so far per state?
There have been two bullseyes for tornadoes so far for 2024: Florida and the southern Great Lakes.
The numbers slightly change as NWS crews finalize their results for tornadoes. For example, Ohio may be bumped up to 19 for 2024 so far.
- Florida: El Niño generally brings a more subtropical jet streak over Florida during the winter. It has been much cloudier, rainier and stormier this winter for the sunshine state. This is their dry season, but not this year.
- Southern Great Lakes: Several tornadoes have hit Illinois and Ohio so far this year, with a few also reported in Indiana and Kentucky. There have been some big warm spells for the Ohio River Valley, with some record-high temperatures reported. Whenever a major cold front has pushed through to knock us back down to reality, tornadoes have formed.
This is another way to look at the data, ranked by state. Indiana ranks ninth in the country for tornadoes so far this year. That is very unusual. Indiana has had more tornadoes than Texas and Oklahoma combined.
Will the upcoming La Niña make tornadoes worse for Indiana this year?
This is a big question meteorologists and climatologists are looking at. We are in a declining El Niño right now, and La Niña should be here shortly once we make it to the summer or fall. When we have had transitions like this in the past, sometimes we have had a lot more tornadoes, and other times, we have had very little tornado activity. Boom or bust, you could say. So far, we have been in a boom case. We'll see how the rest of the spring shakes out.