INDIANA, USA — After hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, Cozumel, the Grenadine Islands and skimming the coast of Jamaica with ferocious wind, rain, and storm surge, Hurricane Beryl continues moving northwest toward Mexico and eventually the United States. The possibility for wind and rain is growing for Texas. After Texas, will the storm bring any rain to Indiana?
Tap HERE to track the storm with our interactive satellite weather maps.
Long-range forecasting is based on ensemble data, where multiple simulations can guide forecasters to the potential path of the storm. After it reaches land, the storm will increasing become subject to high pressure systems, the jet stream, and fronts on the mainland. That is to say, the forecast gets complicated. However there are some signs that we can look to help guide the potential path of the rain for the remnants of the hurricane.
Update: July 4, 4 p.m. EDT
The storm has run into some wind shear and Saharan dust, weakening it back down to category 2 strength. It is heading toward the Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Playa del Carmen. After it hits Mexico, it will weaken even farther, possible back to tropical storm strength.
It should enter back into open water in the western Gulf by the weekend, possibly strengthening back into a weak hurricane. After that there are a lot of questions. Does it move more west or north?
Steering High Pressure
There is higher pressure over Florida, and that should generally continue into next week. It may wobble a bit (which could impact the path of the leftover rain from Beryl), but overall the subtropical jet stream around the high pressure should carry Beryl to the north and east.
Once the storm passes over Texas, there will likely no longer be much organization to the leftover rain of Beryl. The rain will likely combine with pre-existing scattered rain and storm chances over the central Plains.
We do expect some of that rain to be carried into the Ohio River Valley by the end of the coming week (estimated July 11-14).
Early look: States that could possibly see some rain
- Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky
After the Ohio River Valley, expect the moisture from Beryl to be unnoticeable from other storm systems across the United States.
What about Indiana?
It is still very early. We are honestly not sure if Indiana will get some of the rain, but there is a chance. Sometimes there is not a chance at all. Right now the chance is growing. However any rain chances are still several days away.
We could use a little more rain.
— 13News Meteorologist Matt Standridge
