INDIANA, USA — Get ready for some fall color! You may have noticed a few trees already changing colors. More widespread color change will be happening from north to south, and higher elevations to lower elevations. How good will the color be this autumn season?
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Every tree is different, but there are factors that can make the fall colors more vibrant or more dull. Leaves may also peak earlier than normal or later than normal. The biggest factors are rainfall and temperature. Even cloud coverage, humidity and wind can make differences, as well.
We are looking at current drought conditions (as of late August) and outlooks on how rainfall and heat patterns may impact the fall colors this year. We may need to update this forecast at times, depending on where the heaviest rain falls. A tropical system that brings even inland rain can greatly change fall colors.
2024 fall foliage forecast
- Great color: dark green
- Good color: lime green
- OK color: yellow
- Dull color: orange
- Poor color: red
This is a rough scale on how to determine fall colors. Dull and poor areas generally have worse drought conditions with continued dry, hot weather expected to continue.
(Note: For a more detailed explanation for each region, scroll down.)
This map forecasts how colorful or vibrant the fall foliage may be this fall 2024. However, it is relative to each location. For example, "OK" conditions in Pennsylvania may still be better than "good" conditions in Georgia. This is because the fall foliage is usually better in the north than in the south, thanks to lower humidity.
When you look at your state, your forecast is compared to whatever your normal is.
If you're looking for a fall trip, the western Great Lakes and New England may treat you to the best colors. This is fairly typical, but the weather in these two regions has been wonderful so far this summer for fall colors, and we are expecting decent rain chances moving forward.
How does water impacts fall colors?
We start thinking about the fall leaves during the summer. High heat stress and drought conditions can start to impact how colorful the fall leaves will be in the fall.
This is the drought status as of late August. The yellow, orange and red colors indicate drought severity levels. There are a few places to note with higher drought areas:
- Northern Rockies (especially Montana, Wyoming, Idaho and eastern Washington)
- Northern Appalachians (especially West Virginia and southeast Ohio)
- Central Plains (Kansas, west Oklahoma except the panhandle)
These locations have already had a lot of heat stress, which could lead to some muted colors.
One place to note... California. The drought has broken across much of the state, mainly thanks to great winter snows and spring rains earlier this year. We are still looking pretty good relatively for the state. Some better fall colors than normal are expected there.
Looking ahead, drier than normal weather is expected for the southeast and much of the Plains. This is from NOAA. These areas may continue to get drier. If they get too dry, then muted fall colors are possible.
The east coast has a higher chance for rainfall, compared to normal. This is why we have increased good fall color chances for much of the Atlantic seaboard.
Why does it matter?
Drier than normal weather or drought can do two things. First, it can delay fall colors. Second, it can delay fall colors. We've sometimes seen drought conditions push back peak fall colors by two or three weeks.
How do temperatures impact fall colors?
You want nice, warm sunny afternoons, followed by cool and chilly nights for the best fall colors. The night temperature is the biggest factor.
Looking ahead, we are expecting a fairly warm fall for most of the country. There will be cool and chilly days, but more heat and cold weather is expected. There is a higher signal for hotter than normal weather in the northeast and the southwest.
The reason we have a better forecast for the western Great Lakes compared to the eastern Great Lakes is due to this temperature forecast.
Warmer temperatures with higher humidity can lead to more muted colors. Cooler nights can lead to more vibrant colors.
How do clouds impact fall colors?
Too many clouds? According to Harvard, the red pigments (anthocyanins) need sunlight for production. If you have too many clouds, the red fall leaves may be more muted. Otherwise, clouds can help bring rain. Normal rainfall is good for fall colors.
How do winds impact fall colors?
The vibrancy of winds is not impacted by wind. However, stronger wind storms in the early fall can knock off a lot of the leaves prematurely. Then, it doesn't matter how the weather has been all year because you took the leaves off the trees too soon.
How humidity impacts fall colors?
Higher humidity levels prevent temperatures at night from falling very much. Good color production requires nice, warm, sunny days followed by cool nights. If you can't cool off at night, expect peak colors to be delayed and possibly more dull.
This is one of the biggest reasons why the northern states and higher elevations typically have the best fall colors. Areas farther south are usually not as colorful, unless you're in the Ozarks, Ouachitas or Appalachians. You don't typically travel to Alabama for fall colors, compared to picking Vermont, for example.
Fall colors forecast: Northeast and Great Lakes
As per usual, the Great Lakes and the northeast look pretty good for fall colors. Few notes:
- We have the dark green color for the western Great Lakes due to more chances for cool nights.
- We have the dark green color for New England due to higher rain chances.
- Dull colors are expected around West Virginia. This is due to a strong drought that does not show signs of lifting for a while.
Fall colors forecast: Southeast
Southeast fall colors are best in higher elevations. Otherwise, the colors are generally a bit more muted compared to the north. This year, we have higher hopes to the east. Few notes:
- Piedmont: Good fall colors expected with rainfall chances continuing. However, tropical systems that come may knock off leaves, reducing the foliage color. Something to watch...
- Deep south (Alabama and Mississippi): Drought conditions may reduce fall colors.
Fall colors forecast: South
Much of the south has been drier than normal. If this doesn't change, expect OK or duller-than-normal colors. Few notes:
- Northwest Arkansas and the Arkansas River Valley may have some good fall color. Drought conditions have mostly ended after intense storms dropped a lot of rain in August.
- Areas farther west have high drought. Duller colors are expected.
Fall colors forecast: Plains and Midwest
The farther east you go, the better the color will likely be with more rainfall this summer so far. Few notes:
- West of the continental divide, drought conditions continue to grow, causing more stress on leaves.
Fall colors forecast: West
The west has several different microclimates. One side of a mountain or valley could differ greatly from the other. Generally, drought conditions in the Rockies is leading to some stress in the leaves. However, the colors are usually awesome. So "dull" conditions for some of these mountains will still be a good foliage season. Few notes:
- Higher rain chances are possible along the west coast. This is why we have increased the fall color forecast.
- Poor color conditions (compared to what is normal, which may still be OK) are likely around Idaho with higher drought conditions persisting.
We will monitor rains for the remainder of summer and start of fall to revaluate fall color forecasts.