INDIANAPOLIS — The fall season officially begins this Sunday, and soon after, we'll start anticipating the leaves changing colors. A big question right now: How will the dry weather we're having impact our color show?
Let's start with conditions for the ideal fall foliage:
- A warm, wet spring and growing season
- Near-average rainfall in the fall
- Warm (but not above average), sunny fall days
- Chilly, but not freezing, fall nights
Our spring was warm and wet with slightly above average temperatures and a rainfall surplus of 2.72" between March, April and May. We're good there.
Our sunny days with cool overnights are also working in our favor. The well-above average stretch could hinder the vibrant colors, though. Then, the bigger issue: the lack of rain.
We're currently in our longest dry stretch of the year with 11 days in a row with no rain (no rain for 16 of the 17 days so far this month). This has quickly dried up the surplus from earlier in the year.
Below-average rainfall in the fall will dry up the soil. Sufficient soil moisture is crucial for brighter colors. Due to this, the leaf color change may be muted or delayed. It can also lead to an earlier leaf drop, which can shorten the time fall colors are visible.
On average, most of Indiana sees the peak foliage in late October. This may be delayed a bit if below-average rainfall continues. If we get a few good soaking rains, though, we could be in store for a brilliant color show. The pattern does look to shift by early next week with a few rain chances in the extended forecast.
