TERRE HAUTE, Ind. — To find out who will win the White House, you likely just need to head to Vigo County.
Home to Terre Haute, Indiana State University and Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, voters here have correctly predicted the president in every election since 1888, with just three exceptions.
It’s known as a bellwether county — one of only a handful in the United States that have reliably predicted the next president.
Step through the door at Bev's Restaurant in Terre Haute, serving customers now for close to 50 years, and you’ll usually find it crowded with customers looking for a mid-morning breakfast or daily lunch special.
On Thursday's, Bev’s serves fried steak.
And with this year’s presidential election just a few weeks away, the daily special comes hot with a side of presidential politics and a discussion about the election.
"It's going to be a really tight race, and I'm a little apprehensive,” said 70-year-old Mari Gaskins as she sits across a table from her longtime friend Darla Washburn.
"She's just like my little sister,” Gaskins said of Washburn.
The two women have known each other for decades.
Gaskin’s best friend was Washburn’s older sister, who has since passed away.
“She made me promise to look out for her,” Gaskins said of the promise she made to Washburn’s older sister before she passed.
The history and affection between the two women runs deep. But while they enjoy sharing a meal, these days, they don't share the same views when it comes to who they'd like to be the next president.
Gaskins is for Donald Trump.
"Under his watch, I was doing really well financially,” Gaskins said.
Washburn is voting for Kamala Harris.
"I think it would be exciting to have Kamala as our first woman president, but I won't throw a fit and I won't say there's cheaters if Donald Trump wins,” Washburn said.
In the 2020 presidential election, Vigo County, where both women live, went for Trump.
The country though, elected Joe Biden as president.
That was only the third time since 1888 that voters in Vigo County picked the candidate who lost. The other elections were in 1908 (William Howard Taft defeated William Jennings Bryan) and 1952 (Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson II).
Besides that, in all the other presidential elections, Vigo County's choice has been the same as the nation's, earning it the status of a bellwether for presidential elections.
"Bellwether is like a predictor of something, and it kind of predicted the election for many years,” said Suzy Dunning, Vigo County’s historian and curator of the Vigo County History Center. "The people of Vigo County, how they would vote, sort of was a predictor of what the national election results would turn out to be."
Around every corner of the museum, there are echoes of Vigo County's past.
"One thing we often say here in Terre Haute is this was written by our local poet, Max Erman, is that ‘Terre Haute is the world in miniature,’” Dunning said.
That world has changed though and so has Vigo County.
Like other Midwestern rust belts towns, industries have left and with them, good paying jobs. Some have been replaced, and some haven't.
The county seat, Terre Haute, boasts four colleges, attracting students from diverse communities. Even so, the population in Vigo County remains predominantly white and looks less like the country as a whole now.
So what does that mean for the county's future as a bellwether in the upcoming election?
"It might be a thing of the past," Dunning said.
Professor Emeritus Marjorie Hershey with Indiana University agrees.
"Saying something is a bellwether county is simply a way of saying at the time, it reflects the demographics and the party preferences of the country as a whole," Hershey said. "But times change, and demographics change."
"2024 will be a key moment where analysts will be looking closely to see whether we can still call these bellwethers or whether this is no longer the case," Professor Elizabeth Bennion, also with IU, agreed.
Whatever happens in November, no matter who Vigo County and America sends to the White House, Gaskins and Washburn say they'll still be friends.
"Politics shouldn't be the make or break of people," Washburn said.
And no matter who wins, they'll still come to Bev's to enjoy a homemade pie at lunch.
"She's definitely part of my life," Washburn said.
And no matter who wins, the conversation over the pie probably won't be about the president.