WASHINGTON D.C., DC — A disaffected electorate wanted former President Donald Trump to return to the White House, a blatant rejection of Vice President Kamala Harris and her nearly four years with President Joe Biden.
The Republican’s victory came from a public so put off by America’s trajectory that they welcomed his brash and disruptive approach. About 3 in 10 voters said they wanted total upheaval in how the country is run, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Even if they weren’t looking for something that dramatic, more than half of voters overall said they wanted to see substantial change.
Both nationwide and in key battleground states, the Republican won over voters who were alarmed about the economy and prioritized more aggressive enforcement of immigration laws. Those issues largely overshadowed many voters’ focus on the future of democracy and abortion protections — key priorities for Harris’ voters, but not enough to turn the election in her favor.
Trump made inroads among lower-income voters, middle-income voters and voters without college degrees, AP VoteCast found. Harris had relative strengths with college graduates and higher-income voters, but Trump held onto his base and also made marginal gains with some of Democrats' core constituencies.
Trump’s victory, however, wasn’t a total mandate. Even as Trump prevailed in the electoral college, there were concerns about how he could wield his power. Most voters said they were very or somewhat concerned that electing Trump would bring the U.S. closer to being an authoritarian country, where a single leader has unchecked power. Still, more than 1 in 10 of those voters backed him.
Voters gave Trump the edge on their top concern: the economy
Anxiety about inflation was high nationally, and voters broadly believed that Trump would be better equipped than Harris to handle the economy and jobs. The key swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin largely mirrored the mood of the nation.
Trump decisively won among voters who said their family finances were “falling behind” — a group that grew from about 2 in 10 voters in 2020 to about 3 in 10 this year. He also carried more than half of voters who were “very concerned” about the cost of food, the cost of housing, and their own health care costs while reeling from inflation that spiked to a four-decade high in June 2022.
Voters who were focused on the economy ended up breaking hard for Trump. Those who said inflation was the most important factor for their vote were almost twice as likely to support Trump over Harris, and about 6 in 10 voters who said the economy and jobs were the most important issue facing the country were in his camp.
The political divide between higher-income and lower-income Americans was stark, with Trump gaining slightly among voters whose household income is less than $100,000 per year, while Harris held steady with voters who make more than that.
Trump eroded Democrats’ traditional advantage among key groups
Trump picked up a small but significant share of younger voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters, many of whom were feeling down about the economy. Majorities of younger Black voters and Latino voters said the economy is not working well.
The economy carried more prominence than in the 2020 election, including for these groups. Four years ago, COVID-19 and racism were important issues for Black and Latino voters. But this time, they were more focused on the economy, and Trump managed to make inroads with both groups even as the majority stayed with Harris.
Among voters under 30, slightly less than half went for Trump, an improvement from his 2020 performance. About three-quarters of young voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, and roughly one-third said they wanted complete and total upheaval to how the country is run.
There was also a divide between young men and women on which candidate they backed. About 6 in 10 women between 18 to 29 voted for Harris, and more than half of men in that age group backed Trump.
Trump deepened his support among voters without college degrees
Over half of voters reported not having a college degree. Harris and Biden both spoke at union halls and promised to remove the degree requirements that could block people without degrees from getting government jobs.
That messaging didn't land as Democrats had hoped.
Trump ran just slightly ahead of Biden with non-college voters in 2020. The Republican made modest gains, earning a clear majority of this group, while only about 4 in 10 supported Harris.
In the end, voters chose to entrust him with the economy, even though half said he didn’t look out for people like them.
Tough immigration policies were more popular, particularly in swing states
Voters were more likely to embrace hardline immigration policies than they were four years ago, which aligned with Trump’s tough approach.
About 4 in 10 voters said that immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be deported to the country they came from, up from about 3 in 10 in 2020. And while most voters said that immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, that was down from 2020.
Voters who said they personally immigrated to the U.S. were more likely to support Harris over Trump – but even among this group, about 4 in 10 said that immigrants in the country without documentation should be deported.
Trump has seized on an increase in illegal crossings at the U.S. border with Mexico as a driver of crime and falsely accused Haitian immigrants in Ohio of eating dogs and cats. That position may have echoed in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – three states far from the southern border where at least three-quarters of Trump voters said they supported deportation over a chance to apply for legal status.
And concern about the impact of illegal immigration on individual communities was palpable. In Ohio, about three-quarters of voters said that immigrants who come to the U.S. illegally do more to hurt their state than help. The vast majority of Trump voters agreed with this view – about 9 in 10 – but so did more than half of Harris voters.
A more isolationist electorate
Trump’s return to the White House will likely challenge the established global order, as he has questioned the commitment to defend fellow NATO counties and called for large tariff hikes on allies as well as competitors. Voters were more likely than in 2020 to adopt many of Trump’s isolationist stances. About 4 in 10 voters wanted the U.S. to take a “less active role” in solving the world’s problems, up from about 3 in 10 in 2020.
Most of Trump’s supporters opposed continuing aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia, undoing a Biden administration policy that had strengthened and expanded NATO. But there were limits to their isolationist stance: A majority of Trump voters separately favored continuing aiding Israel in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah.
Trump is not a unifier, but some voters didn’t see his flaws as dealbreakers
Some of Trump's voters acknowledged his flaws even as they chose to send him back to Washington.
Nearly half of voters said they were “very concerned” that another Trump presidency would bring the U.S. closer to authoritarianism. Roughly 1 in 10 in this group voted for him anyway. About 6 in 10 voters said he is not honest and trustworthy, but about 2 in 10 in this group backed him. A majority of voters said he does not have the moral character to be president, and about 1 in 10 of those voters supported him.
For all his promises, Trump will likely find it challenging to endow the nation as a whole with a new sense of unity and optimism. Asked if he would bring positive change, voters were about evenly split.
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AP Polling Editor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and AP reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.
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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about APVoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.