INDIANAPOLIS — In this upcoming election, voters in 10 states will determine the legality of abortion. Three of these states - Arizona, Nevada and potentially Florida - are so-called presidential battleground states. In Nebraska, there are two citizen-initiated ballot questions that would either back or negate abortion rights.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in its Dobbs decision in June 2022 that the issue should be determined by voters in their states, referendums guaranteeing abortion rights have passed in Ohio (with 56.7% of the vote), California (66.8%), Kansas (58.9%), Kentucky (52.3%), Michigan (56.6%), Montana (52.5%) and Vermont (76.7%). Of these states, Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Montana have been strong Republican bastions.
Hoosier voters will not have the opportunity to vote for such a referendum. While the aforementioned states have processes for citizen-generated referendums, Indiana does not. Only the General Assembly can approve a referendum. But the General Assembly has used gerrymandered maps since 2011 guaranteeing lop-sided GOP majorities. It has held super majority status since 2014 (which is unprecedented in the state’s two centuries), despite the fact that Democratic legislative candidates have traditionally pulled around 45% of the total vote.
In a 2023 Ball State Bowen Center Hoosier Survey, to the question, “Do you think abortion should be…,” 31.3% of respondents answered “legal in most cases,” and 27.8% answered “legal in all cases.” That means that more than 59% believe in some type of abortion access. Meanwhile, 27.2% answered “illegal in most cases,” while 10.3% responded with “illegal in all cases.”
If Hoosiers want to vote on the abortion issue, they'll have to use the governor's race to do so. Democrat Jennifer McCormick is facing Republican Mike Braun and Libertarian Donald Rainwater.
“That’s exactly right,” McCormick told me last May. “A vote for me is a vote for that purpose. There’s a clear difference. I’m going to fight to restore those rights under any authority I can, working in a bipartisan fashion, using our committees, board and our agencies. I also know, too, what everybody’s fear is — that [Republicans are] not going to restore those rights and will take them further.”
The issue that is supposed to send young females to the polls was rated the top issue by only 6% in an NBC poll released last weekend. But as NBC analyst Steve Kornacke said on Monday, abortion was the key issue driver in a series of special congressional and legislative elections that the Democrats dominated earlier this year.
It "disproportionately got Democrats to the polls," Kornacke said. "It's a major, major variable."
The McCormick campaign is airing a TV ad on network and cable TV channels assailing Braun's positions on abortion and in vitro fertilization. It features Braun "in his own words" taking abortion and IVF positions during debates and TV interviews.
"When it comes to things like abortion, I think it's clear to turn it back to the states," Braun says in the ad. There's a brief segment with a news anchorman saying, "Indiana is the first state to ban most abortions." Braun is seen saying, "I think our state government got it right."
Then-NBC “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd asks Braun in a 2022 interview whether he would "criminalize abortion." Braun responds, "I'm perfectly comfortable doing it." On IVF, Braun says, "There's no reason to take it because no one's trying to take it away."
Kelly Wittman, McCormick’s campaign manager, declined to describe the size of the media buy or whether the ad was running statewide. "The ad started last week and clearly people are seeing it," Wittman told Howey Politics on Tuesday. "It's important for voters to know Braun's positions and this ad shows exactly where he stands in his own words."
The Braun campaign did not comment.
In 2022, Braun appeared on NBC's “Meet the Press” where moderator Chuck Todd pressed him on the politics of reproductive rights or restrictions.
"When it comes to issues like this, divide our country in a way to where we're never going to get to 60 votes on any of this stuff, I think the practical solution is when it's not enumerated, return it to the states," Braun said.
Todd asked Braun: How would you enforce a ban on abortion?
"You're gonna leave that up to the individual states," Braun responded. "You might find that right mix. I'm not saying we got it right in Indiana. It's not right in New York. Maybe you find that happy medium."
Todd asked Braun, do you criminalize abortion?
"I'm perfectly comfortable doing it, just not at the level where everybody’s got to live with the same thing," Braun said. "When you talk about criminalizing it, then all you're doing is taking this to a logical extreme that you'll never get to anyway. We just need to take it off of where it is, send it back to the states. Let's find that right way to address it."
In the 1970s, President Richard Nixon sought and found support from what he called the "silent majority." This autumn, it is Vice President Kamala Harris and down-ballot Democrats like McCormick who hope that a similar force of young, female voters will weigh in on this issue.
Howey is a senior reporter and columnist for State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana. Find him on X @hwypol.
